The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts' stock recommendations

This study examines whether aggregate uncertainty affects the herding tendency among analysts. The results show that, in addition to market risk and firm-level uncertainty, analysts' tendency to herd increases with aggregate uncertainty. These results are robust with respect to excluding common and earnings information, as well as using different measurements of consensus recommendation, risk and aggregate uncertainty. Herding among analysts is stronger when downgrading a stock. The tendency of herding clearly increases in tandem with aggregate uncertainty. The results are more prevalent for small stocks and inexperienced analysts.