Labor market polarization and international macroeconomic dynamics

During the last thirty years, labor markets in advanced economies were characterized by their remarkable polarization. As job opportunities in middle-skill occupations disappeared, employment opportunities concentrated in the highest and lowest wage occupations. A two-country stochastic growth model that incorporates trade in tasks, rather than in goods, accounts for this evidence. This polarization did not result from a steady process: the relative employment share of each skill group significantly fluctuated over short to medium horizons. The aggregate shocks estimated within this framework can rationalize the observed skill-based employment dynamics, while providing a good fit to the macroeconomic data.