The unintended consequences of internet diffusion: Evidence from Malaysia

Can the introduction of the Internet undermine incumbent power in a semi-authoritarian regime? I examine this question using evidence from Malaysia, where the incumbent coalition lost its 40-year monopoly on power in 2008. I develop a novel methodology for measuring Internet penetration, matching IP addresses with physical locations, and apply it to the 2004 to 2008 period in Malaysia. Using distance to the backbone to instrument for endogenous Internet penetration, I find that Internet exposure accounts for 6.6 points, nearly half the swing against the incumbent party in 2008. I find limited evidence of increased turnover, and no evidence of an effect on turnout.