Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership

A two-dimensional logistic model is proposed to describe the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership. The endogenous interaction between road networks and vehicle ownership and how natural market forces and policies transformed into their co-development are considered jointly in this model. If the involved parameters satisfy a certain condition, the proposed model can arrive at a steady equilibrium level and the final development scale will be within the maximum capacity of an urban traffic system; otherwise, the co-development process will be unstable and even manifest chaotic behavior. Then sensitivity tests are developed to determine the proper values for a series of parameters in this model. Finally, a case study, using Beijing City as an example, is conducted to explore the applicability of the proposed model to the real condition. Results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively simulate the co-development of road network and vehicle ownership for Beijing City. Furthermore, we can obtain that their development process will arrive at a stable equilibrium level in the years 2040 and 2045 respectively, and the equilibrium values are within the maximum capacity.