Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production

A numerical calibration to the global oil market predicts substantially higher future oil prices and considerably lower global oil production with the more realistic geological constraints set-up than with the Hotelling simulation. While mainly (small) non-OPEC producers increase production in response to higher oil prices induced by the geological constraints, most (large) producers' production declines, leading to a lower peak level for global oil production. High future oil prices therefore, do not necessarily translate to increased oil supplies on global markets.