Optimization Approach for Estimating the Required Amount of Pharmaceuticals in the Russian Federation

The proposed algorithm for estimating the amount of medicines can be successfully used by both pharmaceutical (or dealer) companies and government agencies for objective population provision. The usual sources of such estimates are based either on market surveys or on pharmacy network data. Both ways are very expensive and do not allow predicting mass demand in the future, for example, with an unexpected epidemic or the emergence of new medicines. In addition, the proposed algorithm can be successfully applied to the pricing problem: a variation in price may show a change in the volume of use.