Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009

Subsistence farmers in Sahelian Africa are highly vulnerable to the rainfall effects associated with climate change. Permanent or temporary out-migration can provide an individual or family the opportunity to mitigate against these effects. One major challenge to quantifying the impact of climate change on out-migration is lack of appropriate spatial and temporal data. Out-migration data must be adequately detailed to include both long- and short-term departures. The climate data must provide fine scale, community-specific detail. To examine the climate variability as a factor of out-migration we examine individual- and community-level responses using highly detailed, full migration histories of 3150 individuals with fine-scale rainfall data. Using this multi-method approach we examine the probability of out-migration as well as out-migration duration and destination as they relate to locally measured rainfall. The results suggest that out-migration behavior does not generally change because of failures or variation in the rainy season.