Bread, Justice, or Opportunity? The Determinants of the Arab Awakening Protests

What were the structural determinants of the recent Arab Awakening protests that engulfed the Arab world? We examine the economic and political grievances along with political opportunities. Time-series analysis of nonviolent and violent protests in 18 Arab-majority countries shows that “bread,” “justice,” and political opportunities mattered. State terror and political openness had the strongest effects. Cell phones facilitated nonviolent protest while mineral rents and monarchies discouraged violent protest. We find no support for a youth bulge or an effect of development. These protests diffused from Egypt and Tunisia with positive spillover for nonviolent protest and negative spillover from violent protest.