Revisiting the Modernization Hypothesis: Longevity and Democracy

Modernization theory claims that changes in economic fundamentals, like e.g., income per capita and education levels, affect the political structure of a country in a causal way. As an important marker of development, life expectancy can also be conjectured to have a direct effect on political structures. In this paper, we estimate the impact of improvements in life expectancy on democracy. For the purpose of identification we use data from the international epidemiological transition to construct an instrument for life expectancy. We find a statistically and economically significant positive causal effect of improvements in life expectancy on democracy.