Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?

This paper contributes to the understanding of the persistently high poverty rates in rural Madagascar. It tests the existence of poverty traps thanks to a Markovian poverty transition model where past poverty is allowed to have either a slope or an intercept effect on the current poverty risk. An original and large household panel data survey covering the period 1996-2006 is used. Results clearly indicate that poverty is creating a vicious circle leading to a poverty trap. These results encourage the implementation of short-run poverty reduction policies including safety nets, cash transfers, cash for work, and short term credits.