Estimating the Causal Effect of Forced Eradication on Coca Cultivation in Colombian Municipalities

Colombia has aggressively pursued forced coca eradication to reduce the amount of land that agricultural households devote to illegal crops. However, few rigorous empirical studies have assessed its causal effect on land allocation decisions. I use a 6-year panel covering the entire country for the years 2001-06 to estimate this effect. I instrument eradication with changes in the expected cost of protecting eradication crews as they get far from the airports used as a point of departure. Estimates show the causal effect of a 1% increase in eradication to be approximately a 1% increase in coca cultivation.