Mitigating risks in wastewater treatment plant PPPs using minimum revenue guarantee and real options

Uncertainties associated with wastewater treatment plants inflows can lead to either undersized or oversized facilities. Such uncertainties are attributed to the deviation of actual development patterns from plans. Accordingly, a minimum-flow guarantee is a suitable risk mitigation strategy. This research proposes a guarantee evaluation algorithm, and a new stochastic model using real-options theory, in order to simulate the wastewater inflow to the wastewater treatment plant. A wastewater treatment plant in Egypt is examined as a case study. The results enable the monetary evaluation of contractual clauses relating to plant expansion and minimum-flow guarantee.