Making absolute population estimates in the Intermediate Area using the area and density of ceramic sherd scatters: An application of regression analysis

The demographic dynamics of human settlements are a fundamental part of understanding complex society development, and population estimates are a fundamental part of understanding those dynamics. Many types of demographic analyses can be carried out on the basis of relative population estimates, but a deeper understanding of demographic processes can be gained by converting those estimates into absolute numbers of people. Using regression analysis this paper develops a technique for making absolute population estimates based on the area and density of ceramic sherd scatters. This technique can be used to make absolute population estimates in many parts of the world, though here its application is illustrated using data from the Intermediate Area and Amazon region. Unlike previous approaches to demographic reconstruction this technique provides a basis for establishing population error ranges for different degrees of statistical confidence.