An initial profile of the ideologically volatile voter in Europe: The multidimensional role of party attachment and the conditionality of the political system

Since the 'defreezing' of traditional cleavages and the following dealignment, electoral volatility has been an important field of study. Notwithstanding the often aggregate-level analysis of electoral volatility, this study introduces the notion of ideological volatility to indicate an individual-level shift in vote decision between ideological blocks, thereby complementing the more common study of partisan volatility. Using CSES data, this study examines ideological volatility in 28 European elections between 2001 and 2011. Using a set of multilevel models, the analysis specifically confirms the conditionality of party attachment (dichotomous) and its dependency on the political system when explaining ideological volatility. The effect of party attachment on the likelihood to become ideologically volatile is more substantial when a political system is more diversified.