International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

- We use GTAP-BIO-W, a global CGE model with water, to study the impacts of future irrigation shortfalls.
- Irrigation availability is predicted to drop by 30-60% in key river basins in China, South Asia, and the Middle East, leading to significant output declines in these regions.
- Regional irrigation shortage alters the geography of international trade and induces cropland expansion amounting to 7.6 million hectares.
- International trade flows mediated through markets buffer the impact of future irrigation shortfalls.
- Studies examining the water-food nexus will likely overstate the negative effect of irrigation shortfalls on regional and global food supplies, if not taking into account this buffering effect.