Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and tsunami using stochastic rupture sources

This study develops a probabilistic multi-hazard loss estimation methodology for coastal communities which are exposed to cascading shaking-tsunami hazards caused by offshore mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method captures the common source effects for simulating shaking and tsunami hazards and risks. It facilitates the quantitative evaluation of multi-hazard loss for coastal communities by accounting for uncertainties associated with loss estimation based on novel stochastic earthquake source modeling and state-of-the-art shaking-tsunami fragility modeling. A case study is set up to illustrate an application of the developed method to Miyagi Prefecture by focusing on possible large seismic events in the Tohoku region of Japan. The quantitative multi-hazard impact assessment results serve as effective means to make decisions regarding shaking-tsunami disaster risk reduction.