Canadian Prairie Tornadoes - Preplanning for Warning Issuance & Initiation of Protective Measures

Tornado hazards are destructive forms of extreme weather phenomena associated with severe thunderstorms, which threaten life and property. Proper mitigation actions in the pre-touchdown phase of a tornado can avoid or significantly reduce the disastrous effects. The results of an empirical study to develop a novel model to obtain the tornado time trend in the Canadian Prairies are presented. The time from warning issuance to completion of a protective action and the associated reliability of the tornado detection, warning and communication system currently in place is analyzed, through an activity network simulation plus stated preference analysis, and compared with the stated ideal warning lead time. Tornado warning data in the Canadian Prairies such as false warnings and missed events are analyzed. Using the inferences drawn from these analyses, a more efficient system to mitigate the impact of tornadoes is proposed.