Mapping the expected annual fatality risk of volcano on a global scale

According to The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Disaster Events Database (EM-DAT 2013), during 1900-2012, volcanoes killed nearly one hundred thousand people worldwide and affected 5 million people [12]. Analysing global volcanic risk can provide a better understanding of the spatial pattern and hot spots of volcanic risk. This paper quantitatively maps the fatality risk of volcano on a global scale by calculating the annual eruption frequency of volcanoes of each Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) and building the global vulnerability curve of fatality. This study approved the global volcanic risk assessment method in three aspects: 1) The expected annual eruption frequency of each VEI scale of each volcano is analysed as hazard; 2) The vulnerability curve is fitted by the historical average fatality of each VEI provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 3) Physical exposure is calculated using global 1×1 km resolution population distribution data of 2010 from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The exposed regions that have a potential fatality risk are calculated according to several former studies by analysing the largest lethal radius of pyroclastic flow, lahar, and tephra. The results are exhibited at grid, national and comparable-geographic level to provide as much information about volcanic risk as possible in different dimensions. The results show that: 1) Global distribution pattern of expected annual fatality risk due to volcanic hazards is consistent with that of hazards, while local distribution of risks is related to distribution of vulnerability and exposure. 2) Most high risk areas are along the plate boundary, especially the Pacific Rim. 3) The top 10% high risk countries are Indonesia, Russia, United States, Papua New Guinea, Japan and Philippines.