Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece

We analyze market shares for each public transport mode in total public transport ridership for the multimodal public transportation system of Athens, Greece. This analysis provides useful information for making investment decisions concerning the public transport infrastructure and for allocating subsidies. Due to the non-stationary properties of the data, cointegration techniques are applied to investigate the long run equilibrium relationships. Error Correction Models are implemented to estimate short run dynamics as well as the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run. Results suggest that fare and GDP are the main determinants of the public transport mode shares both in the short and in the long run. Findings also indicate the role of total ridership fluctuations in explaining variations in public transport mode shares.