Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
7496072 Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology 2014 7 Pages PDF
Abstract
An exponential distribution fitted to a frequency histogram of the Euclidean distance between consecutive ASF cases had a mean value of 156 km, a distance greater than the surveillance zone radius of 100-150 km stated in the ASF control regulations for the Russian Federation. We show that the spatial and temporal risk of ASF expansion is related to the suitability of the area of potential expansion, which is in turn a function of socio-economic and geographic variables. We propose that the methodology presented in this paper provides a useful tool to optimize surveillance for ASF in affected areas.
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