Coping with technology uncertainty in transportation fuel portfolio design

In this paper, we present a stochastic programming model to cope with uncertainty brought by cellulosic ethanol technology evolvement in transportation fuel portfolio design problems. The model takes into account a range of possible technology evolvement scenarios, and identifies a solution to the energy portfolio, together with the corresponding infrastructure needs, that complies with existing environmental requirements and is cost-effective, reliable, and adaptable to future technology changes. Using a California case study, we demonstrate that the proposed stochastic model produces a more reliable solution than its deterministic counterparts.