“Selling smarter, not harder”: Life course effects on drug sellers' risk perceptions and management

The limited relevance of sanctions to offenders' thinking about risk avoidance contextualizes the widespread failure of policies designed to deter drug sales. Findings support a growing conclusion that severity of punishment is a less powerful deterrent than certainty and that adjustments in certainty after arrest are offense-specific. The relationship of life course events - especially employment - to desistance and resumed offending suggest that social policies may be more effective than criminal justice sanctions in reducing drug offending.