A novel structure-adaptive intelligent grey forecasting model with full-order time power terms and its application

The paper proposed a novel adaptive intelligent grey forecasting model (FOTP-GM(1,1)), which has alterable structure that can be changed automatically according to actual application. It shows high forecasting precision and can simulate accurately three kinds of raw data sequences: one is homogeneous exponential sequence; another is non-homogeneous exponential sequence with constant, velocity and acceleration terms; the third is regressive linear sequence. The practicality and effectiveness was verified by comparison with other first-order models with one variable such as GM(1,1), NGM(1,1,k), DGM(1,1), NDGM, SAIGM, and GM(1,1,tα). Then the proposed model has been employed to predict China's total production volume of hydropower, nuclear power and wind power successfully.143