Comparison of Gene Expression Programming with neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques in estimating daily incoming solar radiation in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

Surface incoming solar radiation is a key variable for many agricultural, meteorological and solar energy conversion related applications. In absence of the required meteorological sensors for the detection of global solar radiation it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A comparison was also made among these techniques and traditional temperature based global solar radiation estimation equations. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models’ performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with 10 neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m−2 d−1 of RMSE). The ability of GEP approach to model global solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables was found to be satisfactory.

► Solar radiation estimation based on Gene Expression Programming is unexplored. ► This approach is evaluated for the first time in this study. ► Other artificial intelligence models (ANN and ANFIS) are also included in the study. ► New alternatives for solar radiation estimation based on temperatures are provided.