An analysis of glass–glass CIGS manufacturing costs

•For a CIGS module at 14% efficiency, we compute $0.49/WDC manufacturing cost for the case of high volume, U.S. manufacturing.•The manufacturing costs and current state of development of co-evaporation and SAS are compared.•Primary cost drivers are efficiency, balance-of-module materials, and the low throughput of the CIGS deposition processes.•Process or design changes that sacrifice efficiency increase LCOE unless associated with significant reductions in cost per area.•However, even at lower efficiencies than (c-Si), CIGS modules could achieve similar LCOE.

This article examines current cost drivers and potential avenues to reduced cost for monolithic, glass–glass Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 (CIGS) modules by constructing a comprehensive bottom-up cost model. For a reference case where sputtering plus batch sulfurization after selenization (SAS) is employed, we compute a manufacturing cost of $69/m2 if the modules are made in the United States at a 1 GW/year production volume. At 14% module efficiency, this corresponds to a manufacturing cost of $0.49/WDC and a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $0.67/WDC. We estimate that MSP could vary within ±20% of this value given the range of quoted input prices, and existing variations in module design, manufacturing processes, and manufacturing location. Potential for reduction in manufacturing costs to below $0.40/WDC may be possible if average production module efficiencies can be increased above 17% without increasing $/m2 costs; even lower costs could be achieved if $/m2 costs could be reduced, particularly via innovations in the CIGS deposition process or balance-of-module elements. We present the impact on cost of regional factors, CIGS deposition method, device design, and price fluctuations. One metric of competitiveness-levelized cost of energy (LCOE) – is also assessed for several U.S. locations and compared to that of standard multi-crystalline silicon (m(c-Si)) and cadmium telluride (CdTe).