Multilevel approach to lifetime assessment of steam turbines

•Deterministic and probabilistic method of lifetime assessment is presented.•Effect of creep and fatigue damage content on failure probability is analyzed.•Practical application shown by example of lifetime calculation of turbine rotor.

This paper presents a multilevel methodology for a steam turbine lifetime assessment based on the damage calculation, probabilistic analysis and fracture mechanics considerations. Creep-fatigue damage calculations serve as a basis for evaluating the current lifetime expenditure and for defining additional steps of analysis. The need for the use of probabilistic analysis results from the inherent uncertainty in estimating the lifetime expenditure primarily caused by scatter in material properties. Fracture mechanics considerations are helpful in determining additional safety margins for components containing cracks. This methodology has been illustrated using an example of the lifetime calculations of a high-temperature steam turbine rotor. The calculations were based on the results of 2D numerical simulations performed for steady state and transient operating conditions.