Prediction scheme for the catastrophic failure of highly loaded brittle materials or rocks

Due to broadly distributed heterogeneities, the multistep character of the development of random damage in brittle materials or rocks, reflecting the discrete nature of the fracturing process, enables us to compare the diffusion of damages with the percolation phenomenon. Based on a discrete scale hierarchy, the fracturing process leading to material failure is then identified with a second-order phase transition, enabling prediction. In this connection, this paper presents a prediction scheme for the catastrophic failure or the lifetime of highly loaded materials or rocks. An experimental measurement method and a modelling of bi-phase materials or rocks are proposed. Although this scheme is introduced in the context of materials science, it also works in rock for the prediction of large natural earthquakes and some artificially induced earthquakes and rock bursts due to damming and mining. Results with strong forecasting potential explain for the first time the origin of complex critical exponents through a structural parameter.