Effects of Common Structural Rules on hull-girder reliability of an Aframax oil tanker

This paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing Aframax tanker to comply with the Common Structural Rules (CSR) for double-hull oil tankers. The probability of structural failure is calculated using the first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance with the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS)-recommended procedure, while transfer functions are calculated using the sink–source 3D linear method. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by progressive collapse analysis and by a single-step procedure according to CSR. The reliability assessment is performed for “as-built” and “corroded” states of the existing ship and a reinforced ship complying with CSR. It is shown that the hull-girder failure probability of an Aframax tanker is reduced several times due to the reinforcements according to CSR. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results with the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges. Finally, differences between load combination approaches by Ferry-Borges and Castanheta method and Turkstra's rule are investigated.