Random buckling bearing capacity of super-large cooling towers considering stochastic material properties and wind loads

► We derive a probability density evolution equation of buckling bearing capacity. ► Numerical procedures of random buckling bearing capacity are presented. ► We establish a FEM model for a super large cooling tower with height of 250 m. ► Randomness of material and loads for buckling bearing capacity are investigated. ► Reliability of random buckling bearing capacity is calculated.

Based on the probability density evolution method (PDEM) and corresponding numerical algorithms, the random buckling bearing capacity (RBBC) is introduced in the present work. By taking the random material properties and wind loads into account, the statistical properties of RBBC are analyzed and then the reliability for a super-large cooling tower is evaluated. The results indicate that the RBBC evaluated by PDEM agrees well with Monte Carlo simulation. And the mean values of the RBBC approximately equal to the results of the deterministic buckling analysis. Nevertheless, the combination of the randomness from both the material properties and wind loads increases the deviation of the RBBC and also distorts its probability density distribution. Correspondingly the reliability of the super-large cooling tower is decreased.