Puerto Rico sea level trend in regional context

Sea level (SL) is rising in Puerto Rico due to regional influences from weaker trade winds, in addition to global influences of thermal expansion and polar ice melt. The linear increase of SL has steepened in recent decades from +0.175 to +0.725 cm/yr. The faster rate of SL rise is partly attributed to diminishing ice volume (r = −0.80), notwithstanding a recent decline in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. A sophisticated point-to-field regression analysis (N = 5980) demonstrates that daily fluctuations of SL in Puerto Rico are significantly enhanced by locally warmer sea temperatures via reduced evaporation, and correspond with lower air pressure accompanying late summer storms. These features point to regional air-sea interactions that affect SL rise over and above the background global signal. Extrapolating these trends, a rise of more than 0.3 m is expected by 2050.