The effect of extreme weather conditions on commercial fishing activities and vessel incidents in Atlantic Canada

Extreme weather factors, a key aspect of the commercial fishing operating environment, can present danger to fish harvesters and fishing vessels. The extreme environmental conditions in Atlantic Canada, most often associated with the passage of extratropical cyclones and icy waters, can be characterized using wind speed, precipitation, air and sea surface temperature, Laplacian of pressure, and ice presence over the study area. This research aims to identify the extreme weather conditions that may affect fishing activity levels and fishing incidents. Negative Binomial Regression, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression, Fractional Logit Regression, and Random Parameters Negative Binomial Regression were applied to recognize patterns in historical fishing activity levels, incident data, and extreme weather factors in Atlantic Canada. The results suggest that there is a strong relationship between the studied weather factors and fishing activity levels overall (extreme weather conditions usually result in decreased fishing activity levels in the study area). Furthermore, different weather factors can have different effects on various vessel sizes. Wind speed is a significant factor in determining fishing activity levels for vessels smaller than 45 feet; but activity levels of vessels larger than 45 feet are only affected by ice presence. There are correlations between harsh weather factors and fishing incidents with respect to activity levels. More specifically, incident rates (i.e. number of fishing incidents over fishing activity levels) increase with low air temperature, ice presence, strong winds, and high Laplacian of pressure. These results can help mariners and fisheries management to make more informed decisions with respect to fishing safety.