Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
806534 | Reliability Engineering & System Safety | 2007 | 9 Pages |
In reliability modelling it is conventional to build sophisticated models of the probabilistic behaviour of the component lifetimes in a system in order to deduce information about the probabilistic behaviour of the system lifetime. Decision modelling of the reliability programme requires a priori, therefore, an even more sophisticated set of models in order to capture the evidence the decision maker believes may be obtained from different types of data acquisition.Bayes linear analysis is a methodology that uses expectation rather than probability as the fundamental expression of uncertainty. By working only with expected values, a simpler level of modelling is needed as compared to full probability models.In this paper we shall consider the Bayes linear approach to the estimation of a mean time to failure MTTF of a component. The model built will take account of the variance in our estimate of the MTTF, based on a variety of sources of information.