Multi-model climate projections of ocean surface variables under different climate scenarios-Future change of waves, sea level and wind

This study analyzes future changes in average upper ocean physics such as sea level rise, sea surface winds and ocean wave heights by using a climate data set combining IPCC (2007) results and the latest high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model results from the Meteorological Research Institute, Japan. Ocean wave height Hs is statistically projected by using multi-model ensemble method based on an empirical formula as a function of sea surface winds. The ensemble means and the standard deviations of upper ocean physics, which can be used in coastal and ocean engineering, are projected for the period between 2000 and 2100. The magnitude of the ratio of future changes in Hs to the value in the present climate is at most ±15%, which exceeds the projected changes in sea surface pressure and surface wind speed, U10. A large uncertainty in the projected Hs can be observed around the Equator and in the Antarctic Ocean. The synoptic scale of atmospheric pressure distribution is found to be important for estimating and understanding the future changes in sea level rise, U10 and Hs.