Theoretical basis of quantification for layer of protection analysis (LOPA)

In order to guide the corrective application of LOPA, this paper tries to discuss the theoretical basis of quantification for LOPA by comparing the computing methods of event tree consequences. It also discusses the computing equations for scenario frequency of the high demand mode by taking the scenario frequency of an initial event with one independent layer of protection (IPL) as example. Based on the probability theory, the computing method for scenario frequency of multiple initial events is improved and the application principle of two methods, i.e. summation and maximum value are brought forth. Research results show that the scenario frequency of the low demand mode has a specific computing equation. But for the high demand mode, the IPLs should be analyzed one by one, and the computing equation should be selected according to the demand mode of an IPL. As long as a single initiating event contributes more than 50% to the overall frequency of a particular consequence or the accident scenario induced by each initial event has the shared IPL, maximum value method is appropriate; otherwise, summation method should be adopted.