Crude oil price decision under considering emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves

With the development of economics, oil has an important influence on social stability. The key challenge for oil import is steady supply. However, in this article, we do not focus on this aspect but the fluctuation of crude oil price when emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves occur. It is a very complex research in real-life environment. In this situation, case analysis is the best tool for solving this problem. Our model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider new oil price breakpoints, different emergency and so on. For solving the problem, a new programming is developed. Finally, an analysis is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show: (1) Natural disasters have less influences on crude oil price than social conflicts. As the impact of Hurricane Katrina is 3.27, less than 4.044 of Libyan conflict, and the subsequent influence is also limited, 5 days less than 8 days of the conflict. (2) Releases of strategic petroleum reserves are effective for the reliefs of oil price fluctuations caused by emergencies, respectively 41.05, 6.48 and 5, presenting a weakening trend of stabilizing role.