A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs

In quantitative risk analysis (QRA) risk is quantified using probabilities and expected values, for example expressed by PLL values, FAR values, IR values and F–N curves. The calculations are tedious and include a strong element of arbitrariness. The value added by the quantification can certainly be questioned. In this paper, we argue that such analyses often are better replaced by semi-quantitative analyses, highlighting assessments of hazards and barriers, risk influencing factors (RIFs) and safety improvement measures. The assessments will be based on supporting information produced by risk analysts, including hard data and analyses of failure causes and mechanisms, barrier performance, scenario development, etc. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities and expected values. There is a need for seeing beyond the standard probabilistic risk results of a QRA. Key aspects to include are related to uncertainties in phenomena and processes, and manageability factors. Such aspects are often ignored in standard QRAs.