Metal mining industry in Finland - development scenarios to 2030

The Finnish metal mining industry and mineral exploration have experienced rapid growth in recent years. The new activity has mainly focused on gold, and base, ferrous and platinum-group metals. The rapid growth has raised both hopes concerning the economic benefits and fears of environmental degradation, and has aroused local and national conflicts between differing viewpoints. In this paper, we assess the possible future development of the metal mining industry in Finland by constructing three scenarios presenting possible developments of the industry in economic and environmental terms. These are: 1) the best-estimate scenario, 2) the base-level scenario and 3) the maximum scenario. The best-estimate and maximum scenarios show continuous growth in the industry in the coming years if the profitability outlook of mining projects and prospects remains positive. Growth is indicated for both economic and environmental factors, especially in the value-added, waste mineral generation and indirect CO2-eq emissions. In the base-level scenario, there is a small growth observed during 2010-2020 but otherwise the indicators in this scenario show a declining trend. The metal mining industry appears to have a good potential to provide benefits in Finland, especially in the economically regressive northern and eastern areas. However, sufficient management of the economic and environmental impacts as well as successful corporate-stakeholder responsibility strategy is needed to maintain the industry's social license to operate.