Energy sufficiency aspirations of India and the role of renewable resources: Scenarios for future

The Indian energy scenario has been suffering perennially from problems like energy deficit, energy inequity and threats to energy security. Conventional power-resources like coal, oil and gas, large hydro and nuclear have inherent shortcomings, especially in the Indian context, which make them fall short of fulfilling the energy sufficiency aspirations of India. The present paper assesses the validity of the promise offered by renewable energy technologies in this context. The existing trends of cumulative installed capacity growth of solar, wind, small hydro and biomass power in India have been fitted to simple logistic models to forecast the future growth trajectory. Similarly, long-term electricity demand projections have been made using logistic models. Two renewable growth scenarios and three demand growth scenarios have been combined to generate six combined electricity demand-renewable growth scenarios. The analysis done in the present paper shows that in the most desirable electricity demand-renewable growth scenario, the percentage share of renewable electricity in the overall electricity mix of India rises steadily from the current 6% to around 43-44% by 2031-32, and then decays gradually to saturate at around 26-27% by 2063-2065; whereas, in the most likely scenario it rises steadily to around 29% by 2030-31 and then decays gradually to settle at around 21% by 2064-65. This leaves policymakers with a lot of thinking to do regarding the viability of other alternatives in long-term power planning, and underscores the need for path-breaking R&D in the sector.