How capacity mechanisms drive technology choice in power generation: The case of Colombia

Colombia enacted its first legal framework for promoting alternative energies in 2001 and a second framework in 2014. Since the generation technology mix has not changed since 2000, there is a need to understand how regulation and market structure affect the adoption of technologies. In this paper we address the question of what has been the impact of the capacity mechanisms adopted during the 2000s on technology choices for power generation in Colombia. Our approach is to analyze the evolution of market structure and regulation. We found that regulatory uncertainty and low prices drove a surge of small hydro plants during the 2000s. During the 2010s, the new regulatory focus on reliability of supply has resulted in increased coal-fueled generation and large hydro. This increased reliance on hydro power can further delay the entry of renewable technologies and the diversification of the Colombian portfolio.