The environmental footprint of UAE׳s electricity sector: Combining life cycle assessment and scenario modeling

What are the environmental burdens and potential impacts related to electricity consumption in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) today and in the future? We answer this question by applying Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to a variety of scenarios for future power generation in the UAE. LCA is the methodology for quantification of environmental burdens and impacts related to the life cycle of a product or service. It allows unbiased comparison of the environmental performance of a set of potential power sources in the UAE (natural gas, oil, nuclear, solar, wind) including complete power generation chains from resource extraction to waste disposal and supports understanding of the environmental implications of a shift in electricity supply options over time in the UAE. Future scenarios are built under consideration of ongoing political activities, technical and geographical constraints, and projected future power demand. We show that all future electricity mixes (per unit of electricity generated) perform better than today׳s in most environmental impact categories, but no scenario performs clearly best. However, due to the expected substantial increase in absolute power demand, the overall environmental impacts of the electricity sector in the UAE will grow further. Continued use of domestic and cheap natural gas and oil resources for power generation and at the same time substantial reduction of CO2 emissions can only be realized by implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the electricity sector. Nuclear power and concentrated solar power show positive environmental effects in most impact categories; however, their contribution to electricity supply faces technical, economic and social limitations. In conclusion, a diversification of the electricity production, i.e. introducing new clean technologies, together with efforts to cut down electricity consumption per capita seem most promising for the future of the UAE from the environmental perspective.