How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation

Nowadays, the European natural gas production has declined having, as a consequence, increased import dependence, which is estimated to reach 85% by 2030. Therefore, the implementation of a European energy policy, towards the viability, competitiveness and security of energy supply, is more than essential. Necessary parameter for the elaboration of such a policy is the diversification of natural gas supply sources and corridors, in order to eliminate growing dependences. Moreover, the recent cases of natural gas supply interruptions to the EU, due to international geopolitical conflicts, further underline the above, indicating the necessity towards an assessment of the potential impact that a natural gas supply disruption would cause to the European natural gas security. To this end and, given the political uprising in the area of North Africa, main objective of this paper is to investigate how a natural gas supply interruption from Algeria, the EU's third largest supplier, would affect the European natural gas security, in terms of natural gas demand satisfaction. Monte Carlo simulation was applied, producing results on the more affected countries and underlining the importance of supplies diversification, reserves and production, when applicable, towards the enhancement of natural gas security.