A new fully probabilistic methodology and a software for assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects at any maturity stage

Considering the available input parameters at each of the three different project phases; exploration, appraisal and development phases, specific probabilistic reserves estimation methodologies are designed to reveal the effect of uncertainties in input parameters on the ERR probability ranges. Moreover, by utilizing the economical parameters such as market prices, tax rates and various expenditures, NPV probability ranges and hence firm go/no-go decisions at the decision gates can be attained. The main objective is to develop a methodology to obtain firm decisions at any project stage while considering the uncertainties in the input parameters and to evaluate the risks in the monetary level. In order to verify the developed methodology, the publicly available data for the Eagle Ford field has been used during the explanation of the procedure stages.