A scenario-based deepwater decommissioning forecast in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 21 structures have been decommissioned in water depth greater than 400 ft from 1989 to 2016, and circa 2016 deepwater inventories include 48 fixed platforms, three compliant towers, and 47 floating structures. All of the floaters were held by production circa January 2017, but 12 fixed platforms no longer produce and at least five of these structures have been converted to serve auxiliary roles as pipeline junctions. Several fixed platforms and a few floaters are long on their decline curve and are expected to be decommissioned within the next few years unless tieback opportunities materialize or an alternative use for the structure is found. The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated analytic framework to model structure decommissioning using a scenario-based approach. Using production models and cash flow analysis combined with scheduled removals for nonproducing structures, model results predict between 27 and 51 deepwater structures will be decommissioned through 2031 and between 12 and 25 removals are expected from 2017 to 2022.