Probabilistic modeling of slug frequency in gas/liquid pipe flow using the Poisson probability theory

Poisson probability theory is proposed in this study to model slug frequency predictions in horizontal pipeline. A Poisson probability model is used because of its suitability to predict the probability associated with events occurring during a specific time interval, such as slug frequency in a pipeline. In addition, a new slug frequency empirical correlation is proposed to predict the mean slug frequency in a horizontal pipeline, which is used in the Poisson probability modeling. Validation study of the slug frequency empirical correlation show a very good results, especially for the tuned model. In addition, the slug frequency Poisson probabilistic modeling predicted the probability associated with a specific value or range of slug frequency, slug frequency confidence interval for a given probability value, and the expected range of slug frequency values under normal operation.