Effects of space weather on the ionosphere and LEO satellites' orbital trajectory in equatorial, low and middle latitude

We study the effects of space weather on the ionosphere and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites' orbital trajectory in equatorial, low- and mid-latitude (EQL, LLT and MLT) regions during (and around) the notable storms of October/November, 2003. We briefly review space weather effects on the thermosphere and ionosphere to demonstrate that such effects are also latitude-dependent and well established. Following the review we simulate the trend in variation of satellite's orbital radius (r), mean height (h) and orbit decay rate (ODR) during 15 October-14 November 2003 in EQL, LLT and MLT. Nominal atmospheric drag on LEO satellite is usually enhanced by space weather or solar-induced variations in thermospheric temperature and density profile. To separate nominal orbit decay from solar-induced accelerated orbit decay, we compute r,h and ODR in three regimes viz. (i) excluding solar indices (or effect), where r=r0,h=h0 and ODR=ODR0 (ii) with mean value of solar indices for the interval, where r=rm,h=hm and ODR=ODRm and (iii) with actual daily values of solar indices for the interval (r,h and ODR). For a typical LEO satellite at h = 450 km, we show that the total decay in r during the period is about 4.20 km, 3.90 km and 3.20 km in EQL, LLT and MLT respectively; the respective nominal decay (r0) is 0.40 km, 0.34 km and 0.22 km, while solar-induced orbital decay (rm) is about 3.80 km, 3.55 km and 2.95 km. h also varied in like manner. The respective nominal ODR0 is about 13.5 m/day, 11.2 m/day and 7.2 m/day, while solar-induced ODRm is about 124.3 m/day, 116.9 m/day and 97.3 m/day. We also show that severe geomagnetic storms can increase ODR by up to 117% (from daily mean value). However, the extent of space weather effects on LEO Satellite's trajectory significantly depends on the ballistic co-efficient and orbit of the satellite, and phase of solar cycles, intensity and duration of driving (or influencing) solar event.