A simple wind–tree interaction model predicting the probability of wind damage at stand level

•A stochastic model of turbulent wind velocity at canopy top is developed.•The model reproduces well the signature of canopy-top coherent eddy structures.•Coupled with a tree swaying model, the model predicts the probability of wind damage.•The model responds to some weaknesses of existing mechanistic wind risk models.•The model may initiate a new generation of mechanistic wind risk models.

Forest wind damage occurs under the passage of strong intermittent wind gusts at tree level. In order to predict the probability of tree damage of a forest, a simple statistical wind speed model was developed and coupled to a tree swaying model. The wind model is based on a stochastic approach and on some universal characters of normalized wind statistics at canopy top. This model aims at generating high frequency (10 Hz) time series of the three wind velocity components at canopy top knowing only the wind intensity from a nearby meteorological station and the height and cumulative plant area index of the forest. Compared to field measurements and large-eddy simulations over different canopy structures and densities, the wind model was able to reproduce accurately the main features of canopy-top wind dynamics, in particular the signature of the mixing-layer type coherent eddy structures developing at canopy top. Coupled with a tree swaying model, the model has allowed to predict the probability of wind damage of forest following the windstorm intensity and duration, and following the main tree characteristics resulting from silvicultural scenarios. By responding to some weaknesses of existing mechanistic wind risk models, this simple wind–tree interaction model may represent the first step toward a new generation of mechanistic wind risk models based on a probabilistic approach.