Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
8139116 | Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics | 2018 | 5 Pages |
Abstract
Various approaches to forecasting the solar cycle based on solar dynamo models are considered. The importance of separating predictions of catastrophic events such as the Maunder minimum, predictions of general trends in solar activity between Grand minima, and forecasts of the next cycle, based on current knowledge of previous cycles is noted. The role of fluctuations of dynamo drivers for the forecast is emphasized. The polar magnetic field in the current cycle is considered as a natural predictor of the amplitude of the following cycle.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Geophysics
Authors
Dmitry Sokoloff,