Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
8141579 | NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics | 2018 | 5 Pages |
Abstract
Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24tâ¯=â¯88.4 with rise time Trâ¯=â¯4.6â¯years. For the even cycles R24Eâ¯=â¯77.9 with rise time Trâ¯=â¯4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raaminâ¯=â¯99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traaminâ¯=â¯4.04 & 4.3â¯years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7â¯=â¯126 with rise time Tr107â¯=â¯3.7â¯years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.
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Physical Sciences and Engineering
Physics and Astronomy
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Authors
R.H. Hamid, B.A. Marzouk,