Probabilistic constraints from existing and future radar imaging on volcanic activity on Venus

We explore the quantitative limits that may be placed on Venus' present-day volcanic activity by radar imaging of surface landforms. The apparent nondetection of new lava flows in the areas observed twice by Magellan suggests that there is a ~60% chance that the eruption rate is ~1 km3/yr or less, using the eruption history and area/volume flow geometry of terrestrial volcanoes (Etna, Mauna Loa and Merapi) as a guide. However, if the detection probability of an individual flow is low (e.g. ~10%) due to poor resolution or quality and unmodeled viewing geometry effects, the constraint (<10 km3/yr) is not useful. Imaging at Magellan resolution or better of only ~10% of the surface area of Venus on a new mission (30 years after Magellan) would yield better than 99% chance of detecting a new lava flow, even if the volcanic activity is at the low end of predictions (~0.01 km3/yr) and is expressed through a single volcano with a stochastic eruption history. Closer re-examination of Magellan data may be worthwhile, both to search for new features, and to establish formal (location-dependent) limits on activity against which data from future missions can be tested. While Magellan-future and future-future comparisons should offer much lower detection thresholds for erupted volumes, a probabilistic approach will be required to properly understand the implications.