Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
8143726 Planetary and Space Science 2014 5 Pages PDF
Abstract
We make the following predictions: (1) The secular light curve (SLC) of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko exhibits a photometric anomaly in magnitude that is present in 1982, 1996, 2002 and 2009. Thus it must be real. We interpret this anomaly as a topographic feature on the surface of the nucleus that may be a field of debris, a region made only of dust or an area of solid stones but in any case it is depleted in volatiles. We predict that images taken by spacecraft Rosetta will show a region morphologically different to the rest of the nucleus, at the pole pointing to the Sun near perihelion. (2) Comet C/2012 K1 PANSTARRS exhibits the same Slope Discontinuity Event (SDE)+magnitude dip after the event than other comets listed in Table 1 most of which disintegrated. This group includes comet C/2012 S1 ISON. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that this comet may disintegrate too. The probability of disintegration of this comet is 27%. (3) Comet C/2013 V5 Oukaimeden exhibits the same SDE+standstill signature exhibited by other comets in Table 1. We predict that there is a 93% probability that this comet will disintegrate. (4) Another purpose of this work is to present evidence to conclude that the SLCs have predictive power.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics
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